The price of the 20 - gauge high - pressure seamless steel tube futures contract, 1401 contract price since mid - August hit 3848 yuan / ton, began a callback, as of the current callback of nearly 60 yuan / ton. The upward trend is not yet over, ready to consolidate, the 20g high pressure seamless steel pipe will continue to rise. 

The current spread is widening, and short-term price adjustments
Steel prices began to rebound from the end of June, with the Shanghai area of 25 mm high pressure seamless steel tube as an example, spot prices rose by nearly 10 % from the lowest level of 3220 yuan / ton at the end of June to 3,560 yuan / ton. At the same time, the price of the 20 g high pressure seamless steel pipe, 1401 contract price rose by 11.8 % from the lowest price of 3442 yuan / ton at the end of June to 3848 yuan / ton. The price of 20 g high - pressure seamless steel tube futures increases faster than the spot price, the price of spot and futures contract spreads widened to 340 yuan / ton, many traders began to buy spot futures, short-term futures price pressure, and forward price adjustment. But from the fundamentals, whether it is steel social inventory, steel enterprise inventory, steel billet inventory, are at a low price, steel prices are easy to fall. With the advent of the consumer peak season, spot prices will rise, and futures prices to reduce the space is limited. Under normal circumstances, the price of the 20 g high pressure seamless steel pipe, 1401 contract price adjustment to 3700 yuan / ton will have a greater support. 

Steel stocks continued to fall, and inventory consumption was lower than at low levels
Recently, China steel association announced mid - August crude steel production of 211.81 million tons, a decline of 1.1 % in the first ten days of August. In mid - August, the inventory of the 20g high - pressure seamless steel pipe mill was 1282.69 million tons, up 66 tons in the first half of August, but down from mid - July, down to 170,000 tons. According to current production estimates, even if daily output reached a new high, the 20 g high - pressure seamless steel pipe steel mill inventory in August fell. From inventory, the price of steel is also easy to rise and fall.

The price of raw materials is strong in the short term, supporting the formation of steel price
Since March, the 20g high pressure seamless steel pipe mill has been clearing its own ore stockpiles. As of early July, the ore stocks of the 20g high - pressure seamless steel pipe mill were low, basically only enough to last for about two weeks, and the 20g high - pressure seamless steel pipe steel plant was to maintain normal production, while the ore was kept in reserve. With the purchase of 20g high - pressure seamless steel steel mills, ore prices have risen sharply, with lower port inventories, rising from a low of $ 110 per tonne in July to $ 142 per tonne in mid - August, up from a low of 29 per cent, well above the 10 per cent increase in steel prices. After the ore price rapid increase, the 20g high pressure seamless steel pipe steel mill slowed the procurement progress. At present, the ore inventory of the 20g high - pressure seamless steel pipe mill is still on the low level, according to the wind statistics, the ore stock consumption days of the large and medium - sized 20g high - pressure seamless steel pipe mill increased only one day than in the beginning of July. At the same time, the ore's port of absolute inventory is also low. In the short term, although the high ore price makes the 20 g high - pressure seamless steel tube steel mill slow down, but its price does not have the possibility of a sharp drop in the consumption season, which supports the steel price formation. 

The consumption season is near, steel prices are easy to rise and fall
With the " Jin JIU silver 10" consumption peak season, steel terminal consumption will appear to improve. According to statistics, the consumption of the past peak season and the off - season change will be around 5 %. Therefore, in normal circumstances, consumption will appear to improve on the ring, this will lead to lower inventory continued to decline, making the steel market supply tension. China's PMI rose to 51 per cent in August, a 16 - month high, indicating further clarity on economic stability. From the domestic policy direction, the growth will become the policy focus in the second half of the year, which gives the market a " cardiac stimulant ". Therefore, whether from the terminal demand or from the market sentiment, the rising trend of steel prices is still good. According to the cost change forecast, the steel price rise has more than 10 % space, the 20 g high pressure seamless steel tube 1401 contract is expected to impact the impact of 4200 yuan / ton line.